Analysis of the Current Real Estate Marketplace
November 11, 2008 
By Rocky Reynebeau
This real estate market is actually just fine but it is the most interesting market that I have ever had to assess. There are so many dichotomies in play right now that affect the various market segments. Let’s give it a shot. In our view there are five different markets going on at this time. Those five markets are: A. The Normal Market where homes are not upside down and are priced reasonably. B. The Foreclosure Market. C. The Upside-down Market. D. The Investor Market. E. The Self-Imposed Over-priced Market. Let’s talk about each of these separately.
The Normal Market
This is by far the largest part of the market and this market is doing just fine. Sure prices have slipped a bit but, in general, homes that are properly priced for condition and location sell within a “normal” time frame and at market value. The news media would have you believe differently but we live in the real estate trenches and we know. Continued - Recent Articles - Analysis.. .
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Is Denver in a Housing Bubble?
November 11, 2008
By Rocky Reynebeau
I suppose we never know if we were in a housing bubble until it has burst. And, we can’t speak to the entire housing market in Denver but, we do have a good sense for the housing markets that we actively work in everyday. My gut tells me that we are not in a bubble at this moment but that we were in a small bubble from 1999-2002 and it has not fully corrected itself yet.
In the final analysis, the value of a home has to be reflective of family income and the growth of a given market. A bubble builds when housing values are premised on the belief that prices will go up unrealistically forever and a disproportionate amount of a family’s income is going to support that home. Those market pressures are built upon and supported by the bigger-fool theory. And, everyone is in on the game - buyers, sellers, builders, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, lenders, appraisers, Realtors and government officials. Everybody loves the bubble until it bursts. The most notable recent/current bubbles are the east/west coast, Las Vegas, Arizona and Florida. Continued Recent Articles - Bubble.. .
How Did We Get Here
©Copyrighted by Rocky Reynebeau - 2008
By Rocky Reynebeau
Well, well, I think I can now say that I have seen just about everything - twice. We have been here before in the 80’s and we survived it and we will survive this one also - but not without pain.
The first time it happened during my career was in the mid 80’s that resulted in the collapse of much of the Saving and Loan infrastructure. Remember those days - we actually had inserts in the Rocky Mountain News and The Denver Post with all the homes owned by HUD. And, how could we ever forget “Resolution Trust” that sold off S&L foreclosed properties. While that melt-down was promulgated by different issues the results were essentially the same.History of the 80’s Melt-down
A little background - in the 70’s and the very early 80’s Denver’s housing market was flying high because of the huge growth in the oil and mineral industries: the effect of John Denver’s “Rocky Mountain High” (everyone wanted to move to Colorado) and the lasting effects of the inflationary pressures of the Great Society and the Vietnam War. Then came the mid-80’s melt-down that was triggered by three principle issues... Continued - Recent Articles - How Did We Get Here .. .
